Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 1586 21014 47 6 526 645
September 21 2020 1617 21015 47 6 519 640
September 22 2020 1650 21086 49 6 479 650
September 23 2020 1703 21300 49 6 471 666
September 24 2020 1734 21415 50 6 475 674
September 25 2020 1776 21730 48 6 490 678
September 26 2020 1840 22050 51 6 504 669
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 1.9 4% 20 0.17% 22 0.19%
10-19 10 8.7 22.8% 115 0.85% 140 1.03%
20-29 20 17.7 44% 222 1.06% 324 1.55%
30-39 3 4.9 9.3% 47 0.35% 58 0.43%
40-49 4 2.7 6.2% 31 0.3% 38 0.36%
50-59 10 4.1 6.3% 32 0.25% 38 0.3%
60-69 10 3.0 4.6% 23 0.2% 32 0.28%
70+ 2 1.6 2.6% 13 0.12% 16 0.15%
All ages 64 44.7 100% 504 0.48% 669 0.64%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 476 13728 18 0 81 98
September 21 2020 480 13887 18 0 77 98
September 22 2020 482 13929 18 0 73 97
September 23 2020 489 14088 18 0 71 100
September 24 2020 498 14231 19 0 78 103
September 25 2020 517 14248 19 0 94 114
September 26 2020 522 14550 21 0 88 113
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.6 4.5% 4 0.05% 6 0.08%
10-19 0 1.4 19.3% 17 0.2% 21 0.25%
20-29 0 1.4 25% 22 0.31% 28 0.39%
30-39 1 0.6 10.2% 9 0.11% 11 0.13%
40-49 0 1.4 13.6% 12 0.15% 16 0.21%
50-59 1 1.6 17% 15 0.15% 22 0.23%
60-69 1 0.7 8% 7 0.08% 7 0.08%
70+ 0 0.1 1.1% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
All ages 5 8.0 100% 88 0.14% 113 0.17%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 420 8356 20 4 26 32
September 21 2020 420 8356 20 4 26 28
September 22 2020 422 8495 20 4 27 29
September 23 2020 425 8564 20 4 29 32
September 24 2020 437 8691 21 4 39 43
September 25 2020 444 8818 21 4 43 50
September 26 2020 456 8947 21 4 53 61

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 2568 23777 41 2 1123 1242
September 21 2020 2622 23848 41 2 1099 1285
September 22 2020 2698 24155 43 2 1073 1347
September 23 2020 2785 24410 44 2 1031 1415
September 24 2020 2838 24651 44 2 1039 1393
September 25 2020 2946 24857 45 2 1057 1423
September 26 2020 2990 24931 46 2 979 1365
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 0.4% 4 0.03% 4 0.03%
10-19 11 21.9 32.7% 320 1.93% 472 2.85%
20-29 22 32.7 47.6% 466 2.19% 647 3.04%
30-39 4 5.1 4.8% 47 0.35% 59 0.43%
40-49 0 3.3 4.2% 41 0.3% 54 0.4%
50-59 3 3.3 3.3% 32 0.23% 39 0.27%
60-69 3 3.0 3.4% 33 0.23% 42 0.3%
70+ 1 3.9 3.7% 36 0.28% 48 0.37%
All ages 44 73.6 100% 979 0.83% 1365 1.15%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 8815 186173 352 41 1844 2697
September 21 2020 8895 187412 352 41 1641 2687
September 22 2020 8947 190377 353 41 1558 2520
September 23 2020 9040 191786 354 41 1418 2551
September 24 2020 9203 192910 357 41 1357 2232
September 25 2020 9345 194393 363 41 1449 2091
September 26 2020 9488 195129 364 41 1504 2099
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 3.7 2.9% 43 0.07% 52 0.09%
10-19 39 35.0 32.2% 484 0.68% 796 1.12%
20-29 46 37.6 33.8% 508 0.49% 686 0.66%
30-39 24 16.6 10.7% 161 0.21% 191 0.25%
40-49 14 12.3 9.1% 137 0.21% 164 0.25%
50-59 9 9.0 6.2% 94 0.14% 120 0.18%
60-69 5 5.3 3.3% 49 0.09% 56 0.1%
70+ 4 2.4 1.9% 28 0.06% 34 0.07%
All ages 143 121.9 100% 1504 0.28% 2099 0.38%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 20 2020 101227 1332102 6653 1242 16346 20034
September 21 2020 102498 1337627 6692 1244 16248 20738
September 22 2020 104170 1348492 6765 1251 16567 21693
September 23 2020 105932 1360183 6821 1259 16747 22598
September 24 2020 108324 1371070 6897 1265 18368 23443
September 25 2020 110828 1383645 6962 1274 19524 24578
September 26 2020 113645 1393412 7041 1281 20933 26042
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 88 67.3 3.2% 665 0.1% 771 0.12%
10-19 403 300.1 16.8% 3524 0.47% 4645 0.61%
20-29 616 478.3 25.3% 5302 0.7% 6837 0.9%
30-39 404 277.1 13.2% 2765 0.37% 3301 0.44%
40-49 394 253.9 12% 2515 0.36% 3027 0.43%
50-59 437 290.4 13.6% 2837 0.35% 3422 0.42%
60-69 277 196.0 9% 1887 0.25% 2261 0.3%
70+ 198 148.7 6.9% 1438 0.22% 1778 0.28%
All ages 2817 2011.9 100% 20933 0.36% 26042 0.45%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
63.9 102.9 154.8 44.7 40.9 23.1%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
17.5 8 5.4 5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
13.5 6.4 1.1 7.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
115.5 285.2 304 73.6 76.9 30.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
38.4 112 66 121.9 209.9 7.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
44.7 61.4 90.3 2011.9 1261 17.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 21.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1422"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red